Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 12.136683 14.186241 16.431146 19.066474 22.069019 25.376876 29.290265
2024-10-20 8.781342 11.514051 14.811949 19.056766 24.344155 30.679438 38.807448
2024-10-27 6.688418 9.697342 13.645505 19.138143 26.502808 35.947365 48.870372
2024-11-03 5.706115 9.010233 13.660927 20.558646 30.374868 43.662026 62.783561
2024-11-10 4.853459 8.280957 13.418988 21.482977 33.569394 50.705689 76.444203
2024-11-17 4.163673 7.629157 13.131172 22.216811 36.474974 57.528285 90.344886
2024-11-24 3.431256 6.745079 12.309698 21.960103 37.781664 62.053756 101.218893
2024-12-01 2.757478 5.814018 11.238590 21.106077 37.979331 64.824944 109.580822
2024-12-08 2.250651 5.076714 10.364056 20.424365 38.315597 67.753317 118.319242
2024-12-15 1.946126 4.666191 10.001765 20.566735 40.013290 72.958504 131.027943
2024-12-22 1.640415 4.186569 9.426280 20.224539 40.791455 76.651682 141.474348
2024-12-29 1.522113 4.089569 9.584076 21.279475 44.173905 85.016975 160.335664
2025-01-05 1.336858 3.811090 9.348477 21.574773 46.256650 91.427950 176.594197
2025-01-12 1.166189 3.531284 9.068979 21.751660 48.147619 97.685187 193.128777
2025-01-19 1.019149 3.276540 8.802256 21.916922 50.028117 104.072057 210.372349
2025-01-26 0.980277 3.303129 9.189088 23.548295 55.029317 116.672379 239.832133
2025-02-02 0.910157 3.225595 9.313115 24.602690 58.927935 127.442282 266.579840
2025-02-09 0.835513 3.116647 9.340799 25.434839 62.426533 137.674670 292.954293
2025-02-16 0.719750 2.850488 8.919923 25.147397 63.461119 143.091113 310.412708
2025-02-23 0.595141 2.518498 8.261826 24.185050 62.884042 145.185902 321.486124
2025-03-02 0.497176 2.246021 7.714257 23.416164 62.650647 147.939448 334.005252
2025-03-09 0.441887 2.110659 7.535419 23.576935 64.595019 155.390249 356.467977
2025-03-16 0.378947 1.925393 7.171874 23.190784 65.185733 159.972161 373.296538